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TOPIC: 2004 MN4


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Asteroid 99942 Apophis makes its closest approach to the Earth (1.631 AU)

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Apophis
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The head of Russia's federal space agency has said it will work to divert an asteroid which will make several passes near the Earth from 2029.
Anatoly Perminov told the Voice of Russia radio service that the agency's science council would hold a closed meeting to discuss the issue.
Any eventual plan is likely to be an international collaboration, he said.

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Apophis will travel almost 1 degree per minute across the sky and reach magnitude of 3.3 on Friday, 13th April, 2029.

99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)
Earth Impact Table
Date Distance Width Sigma
Impact
Sigma
LOV
Stretch
LOV
Impact
Probability
Impact
Energy
Palermo
Scale
Torino
Scale
YYYY-MM-DD.DD (rEarth) (rEarth) (rEarth) (MT)
2036-04-13.37 0.53 0.00e+00 0.000 -3.276 1.03e+03 4.3e-06 5.06e+02 -3.08 0
2056-04-13.37 0.66 0.00e+00 0.000 0.304 5.53e+06 1.0e-07 5.06e+02 -4.97 0
2068-04-13.37 0.02 0.00e+00 0.000 0.335 3.11e+05 2.5e-06 5.06e+02 -3.70 0
2068-04-13.37 0.00 0.00e+00 0.000 1.039 4.09e+06 1.1e-07 5.06e+02 -5.04 0
2076-04-13.37 0.10 0.00e+00 0.000 0.350 3.35e+06 2.2e-07 5.06e+02 -4.79 0
2103-04-13.37 0.61 0.00e+00 0.000 0.334 4.25e+06 1.3e-07 5.06e+02 -5.17 0


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Astronomers use stars to gauge the position of objects in the solar system. But David Tholen of the University of Hawaii at Manoa and colleagues found the star catalogue that was used to estimate the position of Apophis had inaccurate star positions. The team used a newer catalogue to recalculate the asteroid's position in old images.
The revised data was used to simulate Apophis's orbit and showed that a 2036 impact was much less likely than had been thought. But the new projections also revealed that the asteroid has a 1-in-400,000 chance of smashing into Earth in 2068. The findings are to be presented on Thursday at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's division for planetary sciences in Fajardo, Puerto Rico.

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Nasa says the chances of an 270m asteroid striking Earth in 2036 have been downgraded.
Scientists initially believed there was a 1-in-45 000 chance that Apophis could hit the planet on April 13, 2036. But Nasa said on Wednesday the threat has been dropped to 1-in-250 000 after it recalculated the asteriod's path.


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Using updated information, NASA scientists have recalculated the path of a large asteroid. The refined path indicates a significantly reduced likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth in 2036.
The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football fields. The new data were documented by near-Earth object scientists Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. They will present their updated findings at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Division for Planetary Sciences in Puerto Rico on Oct. 8.

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2004 MN4
Earth Impact Risk Summary
Torino Scale (maximum) 0
Palermo Scale (maximum) -3.08
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.97
Impact Probability (cumulative) 7.4e-06
Number of Potential Impacts 6
Vimpact 12.59 km/s
Vinfinity 5.87 km/s
H 19.7
Diameter 0.270 km
Mass 2.7e+10 kg
Energy 5.1e+02 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability
Analysis based on 2 radar delay, 5 Doppler, and
633 optical observations spanning 1395.6 days
(2004-Mar-15.10789 to 2008-Jan-09.665088)



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99942 Apophis (2004 MN4)
Earth Impact Table
Date Distance Width Sigma
Impact
Sigma
LOV
Stretch
LOV
Impact
Probability
Impact
Energy
Palermo
Scale
Torino
Scale
YYYY-MM-DD.DD (rEarth) (rEarth) (rEarth) (MT)
2036-04-13.37 0.53 0.00e+00 0.000 -3.276 1.03e+03 4.3e-06 5.06e+02 -3.08 0
2056-04-13.37 0.66 0.00e+00 0.000 0.304 5.53e+06 1.0e-07 5.06e+02 -4.97 0
2068-04-13.37 0.02 0.00e+00 0.000 0.335 3.11e+05 2.5e-06 5.06e+02 -3.70 0
2068-04-13.37 0.00 0.00e+00 0.000 1.039 4.09e+06 1.1e-07 5.06e+02 -5.04 0
2076-04-13.37 0.10 0.00e+00 0.000 0.350 3.35e+06 2.2e-07 5.06e+02 -4.79 0
2103-04-13.37 0.61 0.00e+00 0.000 0.334 4.25e+06 1.3e-07 5.06e+02 -5.17 0


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Asteroid 2004 MN4
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NASA says the chances of an 885-foot asteroid striking Earth in 2036 have been downgraded.

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RE: 2004 MN4
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They named the asteroid "Apophis" only after figuring out it's trajectory, Apophis as the Greek translation of "Apep," the Egyptian demon of chaos and darkness. Discovered around Christmas 2004, Apophis will intersect Earth on April 13th, 2029 (yes, Friday the 13th). Fortunately, it will not hit us...there is apparently a scale, the Torino Scale, that gauges the risk of near earth objects. For the 2029 pass, Apophis is a 0 on that scale. It will, however, come so close to Earth that it will dip below our orbiting communications satellites, and will be visible with the naked eye from (I believe) northern Europe, the closest biggest thing our species has ever seen.
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