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Earthquake prediction
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Can we predict when and where quakes will strike?

 This week, six seismologists go on trial for the manslaughter of 309 people, who died as a result of the 2009 earthquake in l'Aquila, Italy.
The prosecution holds that the scientists should have advised the population of l'Aquila of the impending earthquake risk.
But is it possible to pinpoint the time and location of an earthquake with enough accuracy to guide an effective evacuation?

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Earthquake prediction still stymies scientists

The East Coast earthquake left more than just residents unaccustomed to feeling the ground shake and sway in a daze. It also surprised some scientists who spend their careers trying to untangle the mysteries of sudden ground shifts.
Despite decades of research, earthquake prediction remains elusive. As much as society would like scientists to tell us when a jolt is coming, mainstream seismologists are generally pessimistic about ever having that ability.
They lived through the chequered history of earthquake prediction, filled with passioned debates, failed oracles and the enduring search for warning signs that may portend a powerful quake. The Earth so far has refused to give up its secrets.

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Earthquake
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Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted

Earthquake prediction is usually defined as the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of a future earthquake within stated limits. Prediction would have to be reliable (few false alarms and few failures) and accurate (small ranges of uncertainty in space, time, and magnitude) to justify the cost of response. Previous Perspectives in Science may have given a favourable impression of prediction research, and the news media and some optimistic scientists encourage the belief that earthquakes can be predicted. Recent research suggests to us that this belief is incorrect.
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Richter scale of earthquake magnitude
magnitude level       category       effects         earthquakes per year
less than 1.0 to 2.9 micro generally not felt by people, though recorded on local instruments more than 100,000
3.0-3.9 minor felt by many people; no damage 12,000-100,000
4.0-4.9 light felt by all; minor breakage of objects 2,000-12,000
5.0-5.9 moderate some damage to weak structures 200-2,000
6.0-6.9 strong moderate damage in populated areas 20-200
7.0-7.9 major serious damage over large areas; loss of life 3-20
8.0 and higher great severe destruction and loss of life over large areas fewer than 3


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Romans gripped by fear of quake forecast for May 11

If tourists find Rome unusually quiet next Wednesday, the reason will probably be that thousands of locals have left town in fear of a devastating earthquake allegedly forecast for that day by a long-dead seismologist.
For months Italian internet sites, blogs and social networks have been debating the work of Raffaele Bendandi, who claimed to have forecast numerous earthquakes and, according to internet rumours, predicted a "big one" in Rome on May 11.

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Ed ~ There is, of course, no connection between the movements of the planets, the moon and the sun and large earthquakes.



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Monster earthquakes: no long-distance risks

Monster earthquakes like the 9.0-magnitude event that occurred off Japan on March 11 are unlikely to trigger a large quake in distant regions of the world, according to a study published yesterday. The research - coincidentally published in the wake of the tsunami-generating killer - counters a novel theory that an exceptional quake in one continent can unleash a temblor in another.
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Dr Mark Quigley, Senior Lecturer in Active Tectonics and Geomorphology at Canterbury University, wrote the following: 'Earthquakes and the moon: should we worry?':

"No one has predicted the recent earthquakes in Canterbury. Vague quotes about dates of 'increased' activity plus or minus several days, without magnitudes, locations, and exact times do not constitute prediction. ... [This] is opportunistic and meaningless self promotion during a time of national crisis."

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Mexico Quake Studies Uncover Surprises for California

New technologies developed by NASA and other agencies are revealing surprising insights into a major earthquake that rocked parts of the American Southwest and Mexico in April, including increased potential for more large earthquakes in Southern California.
At the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, scientists from NASA and other agencies presented the latest research on the magnitude 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake, that region's largest in nearly 120 years. Scientists have studied the earthquake's effects in unprecedented detail using data from GPS, advanced simulation tools and new remote sensing and image analysis techniques, including airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), satellite synthetic aperture radar and NASA's airborne Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR).

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Slow earthquakes
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Mysterious slow earthquakes, which happen over the course of anywhere from hours to months, could help prevent faster, larger earthquakes by relieving stress within the Earth, researchers suggest.
Regular earthquakes are caused by rapid movements along cracks in the Earth's crust, called faults. Slow earthquakes, on the other hand, take much longer to rupture.
A variety of slow quakes seem to exist: Slow slip events can last for days to weeks, shifting the Earth as much as an ordinary earthquake of magnitude 6 to 7 would in mere moments. Non-volcanic tremors caused by the shifting and sliding of tectonic plates can weakly rock the Earth for hours to weeks, and seem to be swarms of hundreds to thousands of tiny seismic pulses of magnitude 2 or smaller. Very low-frequency earthquakes last for tens of seconds and shake at magnitudes of 3.5 to 4.

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RE: Earthquake
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Seismologists at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre have found that the earthquake counts go up steadily when the moon comes closer to the Earth (perigee) and also when it is Full Moon.
The scientists have also found that major earthquakes occur more in numbers when perigee coincides with Full Moon and New Moon than at apogee (position of moon farthest from earth) with similar combination, going upto a magnitude of 6.0 on the Richter scale, Dr Vinayak G Kolvankar, senior seismologist from BARC said.

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Using resources available to everyone, I discovered a new phenomenon about gravity.
With the assistance of Dr. Xiaobing Zhou at the University of Montana, I gathered gravity measurements that showed gravity systematically varies with mass in motion. The data supported my theory that gravity is the effect of matter set in motion by the Big Bang.
After my discovery, I applied my theory to show how gravity may affect earthquakes.

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