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TOPIC: Phobos-Grunt Mission
Blobrana


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RE: Phobos-Grunt Mission
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Update:
 The Phobos-Grunt spacecraft is predicted to re-enter the Earths atmosphere on the 15th January, 2012 @ 18:30 GMT  ± 5 hours.

phobosgrunt1501121830b.gif
Expand (27kb, 857 x 564)

PHOBOS-GRUNT
1 37872U 11065A   12014.84421688  .03058557  12607-4  53172-4 0  3088
2 37872 051.4142 355.0091 0016943 311.6360 048.5246 16.46263271 10820

Period:       87.62 minutes
Inclination: 51.41°
Apogee:     168 km
Perigee:     145 km
Revolution Number:  -
Predicted Location:   49.1°N, 71.4°E



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Blobrana


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Canada is among the many countries closely monitoring a wayward Russian satellite that's expected to make a fiery return to Earth tomorrow. Michel Doyon of the Canadian Space Agency says the exact re-entry path will only be known during the satellite's dying hours.
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Blobrana


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Ed ~ just a small bit of (scary?) information for those not familiar with the dark art of re-entry prediction. The predictions are based on data from timed sightings of the satellite (don't ask). This gives a fairly accurate orbital path; however, factors such as atmospheric drag, and satellite orientation, and a circularising orbit etc, add to a great deal of uncertainty (currently ±8 hours by my calculations). Within that uncertainty time limit, the satellite can complete more than 5 orbits, and can re-enter anywhere along that ground track.
As the satellite drops further into the atmosphere the prediction timings will hopefully narrow down to less than one complete satellite orbit.



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Blobrana


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Russian Mars probe to crash into Pacific

Russia's space agency said today its ill-starred Mars probe would crash into the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Chile as the craft is expected to begin its final descent tomorrow evening.
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Blobrana


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Posts: 131433
Date:
RE: Phobos-Grunt re-entry
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Update:
 The Phobos-Grunt spacecraft is predicted to re-enter the Earths atmosphere on the 15th January, 2012 @ 18:05 GMT  ± 8 hours.

phobosgrunt1501121805b.gif
Expand (27kb, 857 x 564)

PHOBOS-GRUNT
1 37872U 11065A   12014.23658015  .01725223  12491-4  56028-4 0  3046
2 37872 051.4136 358.4754 0018555 313.7632 046.3500 16.42803567 10724

Period:       87.79 minutes
Inclination: 51.41°
Apogee:     179 km
Perigee:     151 km
Revolution Number:  -
Predicted Location:   6.2°S, 319.0°E



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Blobrana


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RE: Phobos-Grunt Mission
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Phobos-Grunt weighed some 13 tonnes at launch, but very little of this mass should make it through to the surface.
Russian space agency (Roscosmos) estimates suggest perhaps only 200kg will survive the fiery plunge.
Orbital debris experts say there are large uncertainties in predicting re-entry events and it is currently not possible to forecast precisely when or where on Earth the final descent will occur.
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Blobrana


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Live (estimated) satellite ground track

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Blobrana


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A coordinated global campaign is monitoring a wayward Russian Mars probe that's slated to crash to Earth in the next few days, the European Space Agency has announced.
The doomed Phobos-Grunt spacecraft, which Russian officials estimate will re-enter Earth's atmosphere between Saturday and Monday (Jan. 14-16), is now officially a target for the 12-member Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee, or IADC for short.
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Blobrana


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As of early Friday, Phobos-Grunt's orbit was circularising due to this drag at an altitude of about 160 kilometres. It will experience tremendous incandescent heating and break up when it gets to 75 kilometres, says Hugh Lewis, a space debris specialist at the University of Southampton in the UK...

...Predictions vary because atmospheric effects change the craft's orbit regularly. It could start tumbling anytime and plummet quickly. Predictions of the timing of Phobos-Grunt's re-entry have been changing over the last few days, but as of Friday, the US government's not-for-profit Aerospace Corporation predicted it would occur on Sunday, 15 January at 17:52 GMT.
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Blobrana


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Update:
 The Phobos-Grunt spacecraft is predicted to re-enter the Earths atmosphere on the 15th January, 2012 @ 17:30 GMT  ± 8 hours.

phobosgrunt1501121730b.gif
Expand (27kb, 857 x 564)

PHOBOS-GRUNT
1 37872U 11065A   12013.81057812  .01567808  12443-4  68084-4 0  2995
2 37872 051.4148 000.9025 0020159 312.5805 047.3744 16.41207582 10656

Period:       87.79 minutes
Inclination: 51.41°
Apogee:     179 km
Perigee:     151 km
Revolution Number:  -
Predicted Location:   18.9°S, 168.6°E



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