Hurricane Flossie was downgraded to a tropical storm hours after sending powerful waves, wind and rain toward the island of Hawaii's southern coast late on Tuesday.
Flossie continues to maintain an impressive satellite signature this afternoon...although eye wall convection is not as wide as it was at this time yesterday. Current satellite Dvorak intensities range from 6.0 to 6.5...and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported maximum flight level winds of 121 kt in the northeast quadrant this afternoon. With this congruent data in mind...the advisory intensity will remain 115 kt. Aircraft data also confirmed that Flossie is a tightly-wound system...with tropical storm force winds observed in a radius similar to those contained in previous advisories. Forecast reasoning has changed little from the previous advisory... so the new forecast track offers few changes. Flossie is tracking toward the west-northwest under the influence of a mid and upper ridge to its north...and this synoptic scenario is not expected to change much through tomorrow...exposing the system to moderate shear from the south and southeast. Afterward...Flossie will be entering an environment of increasing southerly shear...due to the presence of a persistent upper trough northwest of the main Hawaiian islands. The strength of the trough...and the effects of vertical shear from the associated southerly winds...will play a key role in determining the future track and intensity of Flossie. Latest objective aids are fairly tightly packed...with the NOGAPS and consensus models shifting southward from earlier runs. The track forecast lies on the northern side of the envelope...in deference to the cyclone/S position in relation to the islands. The intensity forecast calls for a weakening trend through the period as the cyclone moves over areas of lower oceanic heat content...and increased southerly shear. Initially the weakening trend will be gradual due to moderate southerly shear...with increasing shear values later in the period leading to a more robust weakening trend. The forecast closely follows the previous forecast as well as the GFDL and hwrf guidance...and keeps Flossie at hurricane strength as it passes south of The Big Island of Hawaii late Tuesday. The current track and intensity forecast may require watches for portions of the Hawaiian islands early on Monday.
