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"All-Clear" Asteroid Will Miss Earth in 2040

Potential asteroid collision in 2040 is a non-threat based on new Gemini Observatory data. Using the Gemini North telescope on Mauna Kea, Hawai'i a team of astronomers from the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy (IfA) have confirmed that the chance of asteroid 2011 AG5 impacting Earth in 2040 is no longer a significant risk - prompting a collective sigh-of-relief. Previously, scientists estimated that the risk of this 140-meter-diameter asteroid colliding with the Earth was as high as one in 500.
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The 100 - 230 metre wide asteroid 2011 AG5 will make a close pass (0.00726 AU), travelling at 9.79 km/second, to the Earth-Moon system on the 4th February, 2040 @ 08:41 UT ±01:09. 

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The Lunar Distance (LD), the distance between Earth and the Moon, equals 384,401 km, (or 0.00256 AU).



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Orbital elements:
2011 AG5                                            PHA, Earth MOID = 0.0000 AU
Epoch 2012 Sept. 30.0 TT = JDT 2456200.5                MPC
M 320.04277              (2000.0)            P               Q
n   0.57597557     Peri.   53.51980     -0.98595835     +0.16085901
a   1.4306498      Node   135.68724     -0.16624015     -0.92003671
e   0.3901260      Incl.    3.68012     -0.01582252     -0.35729097
P   1.71           H   21.8           G   0.15           U   0

MPEC 2012 - Y14



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 NASA Releases Workshop Data and Findings on Asteroid 2011 AG5

AG5-20120615-640.jpg

 Researchers anticipate that asteroid 2011 AG5, discovered in January 2011, will fly safely past and not impact Earth in 2040.
Current findings and analysis data were reported at a May 29 workshop at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre in Greenbelt, Md., attended by scientists and engineers from around the world. Discussions focused on observations of potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs).
Observations to date indicate there is a slight chance that AG5 could impact Earth in 2040. Attendees expressed confidence that in the next four years, analysis of space and ground-based observations will show the likelihood of 2011 AG5 missing Earth to be greater than 99 percent.

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Big asteroid could pose threat to Earth in 2040

Scientists are keeping a close eye on a big asteroid that may pose an impact threat to Earth in a few decades.
The space rock, which is called 2011 AG5, is about 140 meters wide. It may come close enough to Earth in 2040 that some researchers are calling for a discussion about how to deflect it.

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2011 AG5
Earth Impact Table
DateDistanceWidthStretch
LOV
Impact
Probability
Impact
Energy
Torino
Scale
YYYY-MM-DD.DD(rEarth)(rEarth)(rEarth) (MT) 
2040-02-05.16 0.31  1.17e-03  4.72e+02  1.6e-03  1.02e+02  1 

 



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2011 AG5
Earth Impact Risk Summary
Torino Scale (maximum)1
Palermo Scale (maximum)-1.55
Palermo Scale (cumulative)-1.55
Impact Probability (cumulative)5.9e-04
Number of Potential Impacts5
Vimpact14.67 km/s
Vinfinity9.55 km/s
H21.8
Diameter0.140 km
Mass4.1e+09 kg
Energy1.0e+02 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability
Analysis based on
135 observations spanning 147.13 days
(2011-Jan-08.2673 to 2011-Jun-04.39362)



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2011 AG5
Earth Impact Risk Summary
Torino Scale (maximum)1
Palermo Scale (maximum)-1.66
Palermo Scale (cumulative)-1.66
Impact Probability (cumulative)4.6e-04
Number of Potential Impacts3
Vimpact14.67 km/s
Vinfinity9.55 km/s
H21.9
Diameter0.140 km
Mass4.0e+09 kg
Energy1.0e+02 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability
Analysis based on
131 observations spanning 143.19 days
(2011-Jan-08.2673 to 2011-May-31.45444)



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2011 AG5
Earth Impact Risk Summary
Torino Scale (maximum) 1
Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.10
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.05
Impact Probability (cumulative) 2.7e-04
Number of Potential Impacts 7
Vimpact 14.66 km/s
Vinfinity 9.52 km/s
H 21.9
Diameter 0.140 km
Mass 3.9e+09 kg
Energy 1.0e+02 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability
Analysis based on
119 observations spanning 42.789 days
(2011-Jan-08.2673 to 2011-Feb-20.056036)



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2011 AG5
Earth Impact Risk Summary
Torino Scale (maximum) 1
Palermo Scale (maximum) -2.47
Palermo Scale (cumulative) -2.27
Impact Probability (cumulative) 1.5e-04
Number of Potential Impacts 13
Vimpact 14.66 km/s
Vinfinity 9.53 km/s
H 21.9
Diameter 0.140 km
Mass 3.7e+09 kg
Energy 9.4e+01 MT
all above are mean values
weighted by impact probability
Analysis based on
99 observations spanning 30.942 days
(2011-Jan-08.2673 to 2011-Feb-08.20939)



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