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Post Info TOPIC: 775 AD Event


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Posts: 131433
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AD 775
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Title: Variations of 14-C around AD 775 and AD 1795 - due to solar activity
Author: Ralph Neuhaeuser (U Jena), Dagmar Neuhaeuser (Jena)

The motivation for our study is the disputed cause for the strong variation of 14-C around AD 775. Our method is to compare the 14-C variation around AD 775 with other periods of strong variability. Our results are: (a) We see three periods, where 14-C varied over 200 yr in a special way showing a certain pattern of strong secular variation: after a Grand Minimum with strongly increasing 14-C, there is a series of strong short-term drop(s), rise(s), and again drop(s) within 60 yr, ending up to 200 yr after the start of the Grand Minimum. These three periods include the strong rises around BC 671, AD 775, and AD 1795. (b) We show with several solar activity proxies (radioisotopes, sunspots, and aurorae) for the AD 770s and 1790s that such intense rapid 14-C increases can be explained by strong rapid decreases in solar activity and, hence, wind, so that the decrease in solar modulation potential leads to an increase in radioisotope production. (c) The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects, (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low 14-C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong 14-C rise -- very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. (d) Furthermore, we can show that the strong change at AD 1795 happened after a pair of two packages of four Schwabe cycles with certain hemispheric leadership (each package consists of two Gnevyshev-Ohl pairs, respectively two Hale-Bab**** pairs). We show with several additional arguments that the rise around AD 775 was not that special. ...

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Posts: 131433
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RE: 775 AD Event
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Title: Solar activity around AD 775 from aurorae and radiocarbon
Author: Ralph Neuhaeuser, Dagmar L. Neuhaeuser (AIU Jena)

A large variation in 14 C around AD 775 has been considered to be caused by one or more solar super-flares within one year. We critically review all known aurora reports from Europe as well as the Near, Middle, and Far East from AD 731 to 825 and find 39 likely true aurorae plus four more potential aurorae and 24 other reports about halos, meteors, thunderstorms etc., which were previously misinterpreted as aurorae or misdated; we assign probabilities for all events according to five aurora criteria. We find very likely true aurorae in AD 743, 745, 762, 765, 772, 773, 793, 796, 807, and 817. There were two aurorae in the early 770s observed near Amida (now Diyarbakir in Turkey near the Turkish-Syrian border), which were not only red, but also green-yellow - being at a relatively low geo-magnetic latidude, they indicate a relatively strong solar storm. However, it cannot be argued that those aurorae (geo-magnetical latitude 43 to 50 deg, considering five different reconstructions of the geo-magnetic pole) could be connected to one or more solar super-flares causing the 14 C increase around AD 775: There are several reports about low- to mid-latitude aurorae at 32 to 44 deg geo-magnetical latitude in China and Iraq; some of them were likely observed (quasi-)simultaneously in two of three areas (Europe, Byzantium/Arabia, East Asia), one lasted several nights, and some indicate a particularly strong geo-magnetic storm (red colour and dynamics), namely in AD 745, 762, 793, 807, and 817 - always without 14 C peaks. We use 39 likely true aurorae as well as historic reports about sunspots together with the radiocarbon content from tree rings to reconstruct solar activity: From about AD 733 to 823, we see at least nine Schwabe cycles ...

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Title: A transient event in AD 775 reported by al-Tabari: A bolide - not a nova, supernova, or kilonova
Author: Ralph Neuhaeuser (U Jena), Paul Kunitzsch (LMU Munich)

Given that the cause for the strong increase in 14C in AD 774/5 in Japanese and German trees is still a matter of debate (e.g. short Gamma-Ray Burst or solar super-flare), we have searched in Arabic chronicles for reports about unusual transient celestial events. In the {\em History of al-Tabari we found two (almost identical) reports about such an event. The group around caliph al-Mansur observed a transient event while on the way from Baghdad to Mecca on AD 775 Aug 29 - Sep 1 (Julian calendar), most probably during the morning twilight of AD 775 Aug 29. A celestial object kawkab was seen to fall or set inqadda, and its trace atharuhu was seen for at least tens of minutes (up to 70-90 min) during morning twilight. The reports use the Arabic words kawkab and athar(uhu), which were also used in the known Arabic reports about supernovae SN 1006 and 1054, so that one might consider an interpretation as a nova-like event. The kawkab (celestial object) was observed only during the morning twilight at a brightness of probably between about -3 and 0 mag. Such a brightness and time-scale would be expected for optical kilonovae (at 3 to 9 kpc) in the context of short Gamma-Ray Bursts. There are no similar reports from eastern Asia for this time. However, the short reports are fully consistent with a bolide: The word kawkab can be used for meteor, the verb inqadda normally means "falling down", the word atharuhu can mean "its trace". We therefore prefer the interpretation as bolide. We discuss in detail how to convert the Muslim calendar date to a date in the Julian calendar using first the calculated Islamic calendar and then considering the time when the crescent new moon could be visible at the given location.

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Posts: 131433
Date:
Comet observations in AD 773 January
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Title: The Chinese comet observation in AD 773 January
Author: Jesse Chapman, Mark Csikszentmihalyi (U Berkeley), Ralph Neuhaeuser (U Jena)

The strong 14C increase in the year AD 774/5 detected in one German and two Japanese trees was recently suggested to have been caused by an impact of a comet onto Earth and a deposition of large amounts of 14C into the atmosphere (Liu et al. 2014). The authors supported their claim using a report of a historic Chinese observation of a comet ostensibly colliding with Earth's atmosphere in AD 773 January. We show here that the Chinese text presented by those authors is not an original historic text, but that it is comprised of several different sources. Moreover, the translation presented in Liu et al. is misleading and inaccurate. We give the exact Chinese wordings and our English translations. According to the original sources, the Chinese observed a comet in mid January 773, but they report neither a collision nor a large coma, just a long tail. Also, there is no report in any of the source texts about "dust rain in the daytime" as claimed by Liu et al. (2014), but simply a normal dust storm. Ho (1962) reports sightings of this comet in China on AD 773 Jan 15 and/or 17 and in Japan on AD 773 Jan 20 (Ho 1962). At the relevant historic time, the Chinese held that comets were produced within the Earth's atmosphere, so that it would have been impossible for them to report a "collision" of a comet with Earth's atmosphere. The translation and conclusions made by Liu et al. (2014) are not supported by the historical record. Therefore, postulating a sudden increase in 14C in corals off the Chinese coast precisely in mid January 773 (Liu et al. 2014) is not justified given just the 230Th dating for AD 783 ± 14.

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RE: 775 AD Event
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Title: A comet could not produce the carbon-14 spike in the 8th century
Author: Ilya Usoskin, Gennady Kovaltsov

A mysterious increase of radiocarbon 14C ca. 775 AD in the Earth's atmosphere has been recently found by Miyake et al. (Nature, 486, 240, 2012). A possible source of this event has been discussed widely, the most likely being an extreme solar energetic particle event. A new exotic hypothesis has been presented recently by Liu et al. (Nature Sci. Rep., 4, 3728, 2014) who proposed that the event was caused by a comet bringing additional 14C to Earth. Here we calculated a realistic mass and size of such a comet to show that it would have been huge (~100 km across and 10^{14}-10^{15} ton of mass) and would have produced a disastrous impact on Earth. Such an impact could not remain unnoticed in the geological records and chronicles. The absence of an evidence for such a dramatic event makes this hypothesis invalid.

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Title: The AD775 cosmic event revisited: the Sun is to blame
Authors: I.G. Usoskin, B. Kromer, F. Ludlow, J. Beer, M. Friedrich, G. A. Kovaltsov, S. K. Solanki, L. Wacker

Miyake et al. (henceforth M12) recently reported, based on 14C data, an extreme cosmic event ca. AD775. Using a simple model, M12 claimed that the event was too strong to be caused by a solar flare within the standard theory. This implied a new paradigm of either an impossibly strong solar flare or a very strong cosmic ray event of unknown origin occurred ca. AD775. We show that the strength of the event was significantly overestimated by M12. Several subsequent works have attempted to find a possible exotic source for such an event, but they are all based on incorrect estimates by M12. We revisit this event with analysis of new datasets and consistent theoretical modelling. We verified the experimental result for the AD775 event using independent datasets including 10Be series and newly measured 14C annual data. We surveyed available historical chronicles for astronomical observations for the AD770s to identify potential sightings of aurorae or supernovae. We interpreted the 14C measurements using an appropriate carbon cycle model. We show that: (1) The reality of the AD775 event is confirmed by new measurements of 14C; (2) by using an inappropriate carbon cycle model, M12 strongly overestimated the event's strength; (3) The revised magnitude of the event is consistent with different independent datasets (14C, 10Be, 36Cl) and can be associated with a strong, but not inexplicably strong, SEP event (or a sequence of events), and provides the first evidence for an event of this magnitude (the fluence >30 MeV was about 4.5*10^{10} /cm²) in multiple datasets; (4) This is in agreement with increased auroral activity identified in historical chronicles. This point to the likely solar origin of the event, which is the greatest solar event on a multi-millennial time scale, placing a strong observational constraint on the theory of explosive energy releases on the Sun and cool stars.

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Title: Terrestrial effects of possible astrophysical sources of an AD 774-775 increase in 14C production
Authors: Brian C. Thomas (Washburn University), Adrian L. Melott (Univ. Kansas), Keith R. Arkenberg, Brock R. Snyder II (Washburn University)

We examine possible sources of a substantial increase in tree ring 14C measurements for the years AD 774-775. Contrary to claims regarding a coronal mass ejection (CME), the required CME energy is not several orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We consider solar proton events (SPEs) with three different fluences and two different spectra. The data may be explained by an event with fluence about one order of magnitude beyond the October 1989 SPE. Two hard spectrum cases considered here result in moderate ozone depletion, so no mass extinction is implied, though we do predict increases in erythema and damage to plants from enhanced solar UV. We are able to rule out an event with a very soft spectrum that causes severe ozone depletion and subsequent biological impacts. Nitrate enhancements are consistent with their apparent absence in ice core data. The modern technological implications of such an event may be extreme, and considering recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.

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Gamma-ray burst 'hit Earth in 8th Century'

So now German researchers have offered up another explanation: a massive explosion that took place within the Milky Way.
One of the authors of the paper, Professor Ralph Neuhauser, from the Institute of Astrophysics at the University of Jena, said: "We looked in the spectra of short gamma-ray bursts to estimate whether this would be consistent with the production rate of carbon-14 and beryllium-10 that we observed - and [we found] that is fully consistent."

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Title: Causes of an AD 774-775 14C increase
Authors: Adrian L. Melott (Univ. Kansas), Brian C. Thomas (Washburn Univ.)

Atmospheric 14C production is a potential window into the energy of solar proton and other cosmic ray events. It was previously concluded that results from AD 774-775 are orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We find that the coronal mass ejection energy based on 14C production is much smaller than claimed, but still substantially larger than the maximum historical Carrington Event of 1859. Such an event would cause great damage to modern technology, and in view of recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.

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A.D. 774. This year the Northumbrians banished their king, Alred, from York at Easter-tide; and chose Ethelred, the son of Mull, for their lord, who reigned four winters. This year also appeared in the heavens a red crucifix, after sunset; the Mercians and the men of Kent fought at Otford; and wonderful serpents were seen in the land of the South-Saxons

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