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The earthquake that struck Sumatra three days ago is likely to be followed by an even larger tremor that could cause a tsunami as devastating as the one that hit Indonesia in 2004, according to a leading seismologist.
Professor Kerry Sieh, director of the Earth Observatory at Singapore's Nanyang University, says earthquakes measured at 8.4 and 7.8 which hit southern Sumatra in September 2007 marked the beginning of a cycle of tremors that starts roughly every 200 years.

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Tsunami forecast in real time
A powerful 7.8-magnitude earthquake that hit the southwest coast of New Zealand on 15 July has given scientists a unique opportunity to show off their tsunami forecasting skills in real time.
Just as the quake struck at 21:22 local time, 90 leading tsunami researchers in Novosibirsk, Russia - six time zones west of New Zealand - were concluding a conference session.
Session chair Vasily Titov, chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Centre for Tsunami Research in Seattle, Washington, immediately grasped the threat - and the scientific opportunity. Less than half an hour after the quake happened, he demonstrated to the awe-struck audience a precise simulation of the tsunami that the quake would generate.

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One of the research projects at the Zugspitze comes as a surprise to most visitors. Scientists from the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) are working on GRIPS ,a device designed to improve tsunami early warning systems. The early warning system that Germany helped install in the Indian Ocean last year has a network of sensors at the sea bed, the water surface and the coast to detect seaquakes that might set off the massive waves. But whether a tsunami will actually occur is difficult to say. GRIPS may help. The device acts as a highly sensitive microphone to detect density fluctuations in the atmosphere generated by tsunamis. These acoustic signals lie in the infra-sound region (with frequencies around 1Hz). They are also produced by other events, such as when a piece of a meteor penetrates the earth's atmosphere. Such frequent events can be easily picked up by GRIPS on the Zugspitze. The device is being tested for industrial use. Next year it will be put to work in Asia to help make tsunami monitoring more reliable.

A beach in the Indian Ocean. An earthquake could occur beneath the sea floor. Its energy produces a giant wave that rolls toward the land. Geoscientists can describe with great precision how a tsunami is born - and what path it will take. They can even listen in on signals it makes in the atmosphere. The technology for the eavesdropping project is being tested here on the Zugspitze.
It involves an infra-red measuring spectrometer called GRIPS. It is designed to sense the wave coming before it hits the shore. In 2004 there was no warning before the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami first struck the Indonesian coast. It killed 250 thousand people throughout the region. That prompted scientists at the German Research Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam to offer their services for an early warning system.


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Up to 30,000 residents and tourists could be under threat from a newly discovered tsunami risk in the Caribbean, according to experts in disaster risk management.
The heavily populated coast of Guadeloupe will have little warning if a tsunami is triggered by the collapse of a volcano on the nearby island of Dominica.
A team of geologists, led by Dr Richard Teeuw from the University of Portsmouth, have discovered that a flank of the volcano Morne aux Diables ("Devils' Peak") shows signs of collapse and if so, a million-ton chunk of rock could crash into the sea, producing tsunami waves up to almost 3 metres high.

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A new mathematical formula that could be used to give advance warning of where a tsunami is likely to hit and how destructive it will be has been worked out by scientists at Newcastle University.
The research, led by Newcastle University's Professor Robin Johnson, was prompted by the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami disaster which devastated coastal communities in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand.

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New tsunami system in Indonesia
Indonesia has launched a new tsunami early warning system, designed to give people in coastal areas enough time to escape tsunamis before they reach land.
But experts involved in setting up the system admit that some areas of the country, including the province of Aceh, are not fully protected by it.

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Indonesia launched two tsunami alert buoys with U.S. help Wednesday to boost an early warning system for a country worst hit by the 2004 killer wave.

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A new research has suggested that studying ancient tsunamis could help to save lives in the event of another disaster like the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.
Conducted by Simon Day, a visiting professor at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and his colleagues, the research specially takes into consideration a tsunami that struck northern Papa New Guinea in 1930.
Though the tsunami that struck the coasts of India, Indonesia and Thailand on December 26, 2004, caused very high mortality in the affected regions, the 1930 tsunami caused a fraction of deaths comparably.

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How Much Risk Do NZ Tsunamis Pose To Australia?
Research funded by the Australian Government will investigate tsunamis on the west coast of New Zealand to help understand how much risk they pose to Australia.
Although the recent earthquakes south of New Zealand caused little more than a ripple on Australian shores, researchers estimate that more than 300,000 lives and property worth more than $150bn on the NSW coast are vulnerable to large tsunamis. At present, however, scientists do not have a clear idea about how often such tsunamis occur and how big they might be.

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Tsunami seen off South Africa 10th April


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